Forecasting Models and Value-Based Decisions

Weak Evidence, Strong Perceptions?

Abstract

Environmental Impact Assessments are required for major building projects, such as hydroelectric powerplants, to determine their potential impacts on public interests. These assessments balance the negative effects of negative impacts, such as habitat destruction, with positive effects like reduced CO2-emissions and energy security. However, forecasting models and scenarios can have uncertainties due to unavailable data or unknown developments. This contribution investigates the role of forecasting in Environmental Impact Assessments of hydroelectric powerplants in Austria, focusing on key aspects of hydroelectricity and the challenges of using models and scenarios in future-prone legal decision-making.